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Weather offshore: corridors, bundles and the routed path

Why a forecast is clipped to a corridor around the route, what comes down the button at the dock, how the tablet reads it with the antenna down, and what PATH AHEAD does with two models aboard.

A forecast for a route is not a forecast for a line

An offshore race has no connectivity after the start, so everything the boat will need for three days has to be on the tablet before the dock lines come off. What the platform fetches is neither a global model nor a point forecast. It is a corridor: the box around the plan’s route, widened by a margin, with the model run cut down to it.

The margin is the only number on the boat’s weather page — 5 to 200 nautical miles, and 30 to begin with. It exists because a boat does not sail the rhumb line: a beat takes you twenty miles off it, a headland gets a wide berth, and a forecast that stops at the drawn route runs out exactly where a navigator starts making decisions. It also drives the download roughly quadratically, so doubling it is nearer four times the bytes.

A plan with no route never gets weather at all: the area is derived from the route, so there is nothing to cut a forecast to. That is arithmetic rather than a rule. The job runs every ten minutes and keeps the five most recently updated routed plans of each boat current, so a plan saved now has its files about ten minutes later plus the build. There is no fetch now button, on purpose: at nine in the morning there is no 12z ECMWF, and a button cannot conjure a run nobody has published.

Up to four models are fetched per boat, and the page states each one’s own limits beside it rather than grading them — AIFS publishes no gusts and the platform will not manufacture one from the mean wind, because a gust is what a crew reefs on; AROME’s domain is 37.5 to 55.4° N; ICON’s high-resolution European nest stops at 29.5° N, with global ICON south of it.

What comes down the button at the dock

On the tablet, with a connection, SETTINGS → WEATHER AND DATA → WEATHER is one card about one plan — the loaded one, or the newest routed one, with any others counted and named rather than left out. Each row is the newest run of one model, with its size and whether it is already aboard, and the progress bar counts bytes across the whole run rather than files.

Three kinds of file come down it, not one:

  • A weather bundle per model run — wind, gusts, pressure, and where the platform holds them, the surface current and the height of tide.
  • The sea model — the depth grid, the coastline, the seamarks and the hazards along the corridor, which is what the depth check in the routing reads.
  • An official chart extract, where a hydrographic office publishes one on terms that allow it.

A run is immutable — a new run is a new file, never a changed one — so a second press costs nothing for what is already held, and cancelling puts the rows in flight back to missing rather than leaving half a file behind. Then you leave, and the wind screens read off the tablet’s own storage with the antenna down.

Reading it with no connection

Wherever the tablet shows weather it shows three facts beside it, answering three different questions: which run it is and the hour that run was initialised at, when the file was fetched, and how far ahead it reaches. A 48-hour run is the wrong file to spend marina wifi on for a 60-hour race, and you should learn that from the list rather than from the forecast running out on the second night.

On NAVIGATION, WIND draws the corridor forecast as barbs under the marks and the laylines, with a transport for stepping the file’s own forecast hours and MODEL for picking which file is drawn. That picker is built from the bundles on the disk: a run that failed to fetch is an absent row rather than a row that breaks when you tap it. And a missing barb is missing data, never a calm — a real calm gets a circle, an absence bare water.

Race Control on its NAVIGATION tab with the forecast overlay running, in the night palette, with a race plan loaded. The status strip reads LIVE, "FaRo UDP :50001", the boat name and SYNCED, then BSP 7.00 kn, TWS 14.0 kn, TWA 48° and TWD 300°T. The WAYPOINT card is headed "2/5 Ryvingen S (out)" and reads DTW 19.85 nm, BTW 252°T, XTE 4 m STBD, VMC 7.0 kn, TTG 2:50:11 and DTF 68.37 nm, over "ETA 16:57 UTC", "Next leg 272°T · 14.27 nm" and "Wind at Ryvingen S (out) 297°T 13.3 kn projected at the current VMC — ECMWF 06z". Forecast barbs are drawn across the water over the derived chart and the plan’s orange legs. A stepper card along the bottom reads "now" over "ECMWF 06z · 1/47" between a back and a forward arrow, with the line "Gusts are the maximum over each step’s own window." under it. Five controls stack down the right edge: WAYPOINTS, "Move, add, reorder, draw zones — and save the plan back. · 1 zone"; WIND ON, "ECMWF 06z · fetched 12:32 · to Sat 06:00"; MODEL, "ECMWF 06z"; SOURCE, "Tint the water by how well its depth is known."; and TIDE ON. Along the bottom: "44.9 nm across  your view · double-tap re-fits"
NAVIGATION with the forecast overlay on, on a Sørlandet coastal plan fed by a desk simulator: barbs drawn over the water above the derived chart and the plan’s orange legs, the step card reading now · ECMWF 06z · 1/47 over the note that a gust is the maximum over each step’s own window, and the WIND ON control naming the run it draws — ECMWF 06z, fetched 12:32, running to Sat 06:00. Chart data © OpenStreetMap contributors · EMODnet · GEBCO.

You can stop on the steps the file carries and not between them: a smooth continuum would let you land on an instant whose gust statistic covers no window at all. Gust windows differ between models and within one run, so the bundle carries the window per step.

The routed path, from where the boat is

PATH AHEAD routes the rest of the course from the boat’s own position, through the forecast the tablet holds, against the depth in the sea model and around the plan’s exclusion zones. It recomputes on four triggers — the plan changed, the forecast files changed, the boat moved a nautical mile, or the clock stepped ten minutes — and RECOMPUTE asks for it now.

Race Control on its PATH AHEAD tab, in the night palette, routing a beat to the next mark from the boat’s own position. The status strip reads LIVE, "FaRo UDP :50001", the boat name and SYNCED, then BSP 7.00 kn, TWS 14.0 kn, TWA 27° and TWD 300°T; PATH AHEAD is lit in the tab row, after PRE-START, START and NAVIGATION and before TARGETS, TELEMETRY and SAILS. The chart fills the left of the frame: the routed path drawn in cyan, leaving the plan’s own straight orange leg between 2/4 Ryvingen S (out) and 3 Lindesnes S and sailing it in three boards, then running back east past Ryvingen to the finish; grey isochrone dots fan out behind it and a red exclusion-zone rectangle stands beside the boat. The waypoint labels read 1/5 Kristiansand start · finish, 2/4 Ryvingen S (out) · (home) and 3 Lindesnes S, and the arrival label ECMWF 20:21 UTC sits on its own leader to the finish ring, clear of the waypoint’s own label above it. Down the right, the PATH AHEAD card reads 20:21 UTC in large type over "8h 42m to the last mark", then "ECMWF primary · 20:21 UTC", "vs GFS 20:10 UTC (−11 m)", "Depth checked all the way on 115 m cells" and "Margin 3.0 m · 1 zone · 4 hazards". Under it stand RECOMPUTE and PIN, and under those the first leg card: "1. Lindesnes S" badged STBD, reading PORT, 310°T and 14:24 UTC against the labels BOARD, HEAD and ETA
PATH AHEAD routing a coastal course from the boat’s own position, on the same plan and the same simulated feed: the routed path in cyan, leaving the plan’s own straight orange leg between Ryvingen S and Lindesnes S and sailing it in three boards before running back east to the finish, grey isochrone dots fanning out behind it, and the panel reading 20:21 UTC over 8h 42m to the last mark, ECMWF primary at 20:21 UTC against GFS at 20:10, and the depth checked all the way on 115 m cells over margin 3.0 m · 1 zone · 4 hazards. Chart data © OpenStreetMap contributors · EMODnet · GEBCO.

The grey dots behind the path are the isochrones — how far the boat could have reached by each step of the calculation. Each leg card gives the board it is entered on, the heading to steer and the arrival clock in UTC, then how long on this board, how many boards, and the sail pair the boat’s crossover chart calls for. The wind reported per board is water-referenced: a forecast wind is referenced to the ground and a polar to the water, and feeding one into the other makes an error the size of the current. Every leg carries a depth line too, saying whether the depth was checked all the way and on what size of cell.

There is no model picker on this tab, and that is the design: the panel names the model that produced the answer and prints the same answer against the other models aboard, because the spread between them is the confidence display. An OTHER MODELS switch on the legend row hides the alternate paths on the chart, and the spread stays as text either way.

Race Control on its PATH AHEAD tab, in the night palette, routing the same beat from the boat’s own position with the other model’s path drawn as well. The status strip reads LIVE, "FaRo UDP :50001", the boat name and SYNCED, then BSP 7.00 kn, TWS 14.0 kn, TWA 27° and TWD 300°T; PATH AHEAD is lit in the tab row. Two routed paths cross the chart: the primary in cyan, leaving the plan’s own straight orange leg between 2/4 Ryvingen S (out) and 3 Lindesnes S and sailing it in three boards before running back east to the finish, and a thinner grey one beside it, the other model’s path drawn without boards. Each carries its own arrival label — ECMWF 20:21 UTC on a leader to the finish ring, and GFS 20:10 UTC against the grey path further down the coast. Grey isochrone dots fan out behind both and a red exclusion-zone rectangle stands beside the boat. Down the right, the PATH AHEAD card reads 20:21 UTC in large type over "8h 42m to the last mark", then "ECMWF primary · 20:21 UTC", "vs GFS 20:10 UTC (−11 m)", "Depth checked all the way on 115 m cells" and "Margin 3.0 m · 1 zone · 4 hazards". Under it stand RECOMPUTE and PIN, and under those the first leg card: "1. Lindesnes S" badged STBD, reading PORT, 310°T and 14:24 UTC against the labels BOARD, HEAD and ETA
The same instant with the alternate path drawn: a grey GFS path beside the cyan ECMWF one, each with its own arrival label — ECMWF 20:21 UTC at the finish and GFS 20:10 UTC against it. The panel is the one above, unchanged — 20:21 UTC over 8h 42m to the last mark, against GFS eleven minutes earlier — because the switch draws the spread rather than recomputing it. Chart data © OpenStreetMap contributors · EMODnet · GEBCO.

A file you brought yourself

A boat that already has a forecast from somewhere else can import it. IMPORT GRIB reads GRIB edition 2 in simple, complex and complex-with-spatial-differencing packing on a regular latitude and longitude grid, and it names what it found in those words rather than saying unsupported format: CCSDS packing, which is what ECMWF’s free open-data files use, and JPEG 2000 and PNG packing are declined by name. The 10 m wind is required and a file without it is refused rather than imported empty. The import runs on the tablet and nothing about it reaches the platform.

An imported GRIB becomes an ordinary forecast the moment it is read. It appears in the model picker, draws barbs on NAVIGATION, and is routed on by PATH AHEAD exactly as a fetched one is.

At sea, REFRESH WEATHER NOW is the same download built for a thin link: the smallest useful file first rather than the freshest, a stopped transfer resumed where the connection allows it, and the cost in megabytes printed above the button before you press it.

None of this is navigation. It is a forecast drawn over a course, and the ship’s plotter remains the navigator’s authority. The tablet’s chart is a repacked corridor extract rather than an official ENC, it does not meet chart carriage regulations, and it names which of the two tiers you are looking at.

Read the method

The documentation this post draws on.

  • WeatherWhat the platform fetches for a boat’s routed plans and what it cannot tell you: the models and the limit each one carries, the corridor margin, taking the bundles at the dock, and reading the staleness line and the barbs at sea.
  • Your own GRIB, and weather at seaImporting a forecast file you already have and refreshing the weather once you have left: which GRIB formats the tablet reads and which it declines by name, getting a file across from mail, what the import summary says it left out, and a download built for a satellite link.
  • Planning a coastal or offshore raceA race whose course is known days ahead: drawing the plan ashore with marks, rounding sides, exclusion zones and a safety margin, the corridor forecast built for it, routing the course in the browser and adopting the result — then LOAD RACE, NAVIGATION and PATH AHEAD on the tablet, the alarms, sailing through midnight, and the debrief.
  • NavigationThe navigator’s own section: every race plan the fleet holds in one list, the weather already fetched for each routed plan and what makes a corridor stale, the viewer that draws a forecast on the chart and how to read a wind barb, routing a course in the browser with the tablet’s own engine and comparing the variants that change the answer, the marks the whole organisation reuses and why a plan copies one rather than pointing at it, the chart tools that measure a range and bearing and place a mark from one, the navigator’s log and routes pinned from the boat, the deck channels a boat transmits to its own instruments, and taking a plan away as GPX.